Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.165951 1.222552 1.280862 1.345538 1.415401 1.488742 1.571749
2025-11-16 1.068753 1.148209 1.233232 1.331418 1.442226 1.564062 1.709055
2025-11-23 1.013330 1.106392 1.208549 1.329841 1.471025 1.631555 1.829907
2025-11-30 0.976274 1.080057 1.196399 1.337779 1.506738 1.704550 1.957292
2025-12-07 0.933265 1.043171 1.168430 1.323500 1.512831 1.739915 2.038385
2025-12-14 0.891587 1.005068 1.136183 1.301045 1.506019 1.757034 2.095236
2025-12-21 0.859423 0.976332 1.113113 1.287594 1.508249 1.783858 2.164189
2025-12-28 0.842896 0.965255 1.110292 1.298126 1.540002 1.848616 2.285805
2026-01-04 0.822759 0.948700 1.099675 1.297794 1.557014 1.894103 2.383132
2026-01-11 0.810173 0.940712 1.098999 1.309542 1.589602 1.961127 2.513967
2026-01-18 0.792351 0.925410 1.088318 1.307511 1.603242 2.002412 2.609852
2026-01-25 0.771855 0.905978 1.071552 1.296552 1.603882 2.025078 2.678967
2026-02-01 0.748562 0.882735 1.049655 1.278612 1.595030 2.035057 2.731558
2026-02-08 0.727449 0.861680 1.029923 1.262793 1.588320 2.047580 2.788740
2026-02-15 0.713737 0.849650 1.021421 1.261604 1.601722 2.089526 2.894602
2026-02-22 0.704293 0.842782 1.019344 1.268895 1.627191 2.150266 3.035027
2026-03-01 0.687386 0.825649 1.003040 1.255735 1.622243 2.164397 3.098535
2026-03-08 0.668443 0.805348 0.981903 1.235023 1.605220 2.158834 3.127598
2026-03-15 0.653553 0.790038 0.967046 1.222609 1.599841 2.170874 3.187692
2026-03-22 0.647593 0.786409 0.967834 1.232330 1.627775 2.236652 3.348031
2026-03-29 0.638308 0.778055 0.961869 1.232024 1.640290 2.278044 3.467189
2026-04-05 0.633391 0.775423 0.963631 1.242863 1.670195 2.349246 3.648253
2026-04-12 0.624300 0.766890 0.956935 1.240989 1.680065 2.387389 3.768940